Abstract

MEDINACELI TORREZ, Rubén  and  MEDINACELI ORTIZ, Rubén. Application of the Monte Carlo simulation to the probabilistic assessment of the stability of slopes on rock. REV. MAMYM [online]. 2021, vol.6, n.1, pp.33-47. ISSN 2519-5352.

Abstract In the present work, a probabilistic methodology is developed, using the Monte Carlo simulation, to evaluate the stability of a rock slope in which the foreseeable failure mode is the wedge fault. The stability of the selected slope is evaluated using the deterministic design of slopes, the safety factor of said slope is calculated. Subsequently, a methodology is developed for the probabilistic design of the slope considered in the case study. For this purpose, the method recommended by the Monte Carlo simulation for problem solving is followed step by step. Finally, the simulation experiments are carried out with the simulation model built. The results obtained can obtain the simulation model. The deterministic design of the slope considered in the case study determines a safety factor equal to 1.6; In other words, the deterministic design indicates that the slope is stable (safety factor greater than 1). The probabilistic design of the slope indicates that the mean of the safety factors obtained in each of the thousand experiments carried out with the simulation model is equal to 2.922 and that the probability of failure of said slope is equal to 0.178 or 17.8 %. This probability reflects the reliability of the design; its estimation has been possible thanks to the application of the Monte Carlo simulation. In the research carried out, the conceptual simplicity of the Monte Carlo simulation has been seen; This feature added to the computer technology available today, have notably increased its popularity. Therefore, Bolivian engineers, particularly mining engineers, civil engineers and geotechnical engineers have at hand a conceptually simple tool to improve their designs, entering probabilistic design.

Keywords : Simulation; Monte Carlo; Stability; Slopes; Rock.

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