<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2518-4431</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación & Desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. y Des.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2518-4431</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[UNIVERSIDAD PRIVADA BOLIVIANA]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2518-44312025000200167</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.23881/idupbo.025.2-6e</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Assessing the demand for foreign currency through a value storage lens]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Evaluación de la demanda de divisas extranjeras a través del lente de reserva de valor]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Romero Mamani]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ivan Jesus]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Alberto Hurtado  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Chile</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>167</fpage>
<lpage>191</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2518-44312025000200167&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2518-44312025000200167&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2518-44312025000200167&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This document analyzes the demand for dollars in Bolivia, emphasizing how individuals turn to foreign currencies as a refuge during periods of economic instability and devaluation expectations. Using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), the analysis incorporates key variables, including the M2 money supply, real interest rate, inflation, and devaluation expectations, to estimate a dollar demand function. The findings reveal that economic uncertainty and a preference for more stable assets significantly drive dollar demand. These results align with Cagan&#8217;s theory, highlighting the inverse relationship between inflation and the willingness to hold local currency. Quantitatively, the estimated demand for dollars in 2023 linked to these factors amounts to approximately $us760 million, providing a monthly monitoring tool. Dynamic simulations and structural impulse-response analysis further reveal that exchange rate shocks induce persistent contractions in real money demand, in contrast to inflation shocks, whose effects are more limited and short-lived. These findings highlight the role of the dollar as a value-preserving asset in volatile environments and underscore how macroeconomic conditions and policy stability can shape portfolio decisions under currency co-circulation schemes.  JEL Codes:  E41, F31, E31]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este documento analiza la demanda de dólares en Bolivia, haciendo hincapié en cómo los particulares recurren a las divisas extranjeras como refugio durante los periodos de inestabilidad económica y expectativas de devaluación. Utilizando el modelo autorregresivo de retraso distribuido (ARDL), el análisis incorpora variables clave, como la oferta monetaria M2, el tipo de interés real, la inflación y las expectativas de devaluación, para estimar una función de demanda del dólar. Los resultados revelan que la incertidumbre económica y la preferencia por activos más estables impulsan significativamente la demanda de dólares. Estos resultados concuerdan con la teoría de Cagan, que destaca la relación inversa entre la inflación y la disposición a mantener la moneda local. Cuantitativamente, la demanda estimada de dólares en 2023 vinculada a estos factores asciende a aproximadamente 760 millones de dólares, lo que proporciona una herramienta de seguimiento mensual. Las simulaciones dinámicas y el análisis estructural de respuesta al impulso revelan además que las perturbaciones del tipo de cambio provocan contracciones persistentes en la demanda real de dinero, en contraste con las perturbaciones de la inflación, cuyos efectos son más limitados y de corta duración. Estos resultados ponen de relieve el papel del dólar como activo que preserva el valor en entornos volátiles y subrayan cómo las condiciones macroeconómicas y la estabilidad de las políticas pueden influir en las decisiones de cartera en los regímenes de co-circulación de monedas.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Foreign Currency Demand]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Store of Value]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Currency Substitution]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Demanda de moneda extranjera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Reserva de valor]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Sustitución de moneda]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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<nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Philips]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[AQ]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rutherford]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Whitten]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[GD]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Dynamic pie: A strategy for modeling trade-offs in compositional variables over time]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[American Journal of Political Science]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>60</volume>
<numero>1</numero>
<issue>1</issue>
<page-range>268-83</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
