<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2518-4431</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Investigación & Desarrollo]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Inv. y Des.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2518-4431</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[UNIVERSIDAD PRIVADA BOLIVIANA]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2518-44312025000200028</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.23881/idupbo.025.2-9e</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Inversión en exploración minera en el Perú: Influencia del PBI minero, cotización y exportaciones de cobre (2000-2020)]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Investment in mining exploration in Peru: Influence of mining GDP, copper prices, and exports (2000-2020)]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arizaca Avalos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Américo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Canahua Apaza]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edyn]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huisa Mamani]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Fidel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Quispe Umiña]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edwin Arturo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pastor Contreras]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Wilber]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mamani Flores]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mishell Julisa]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional del Altiplano  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Puno ]]></addr-line>
<country>Peru</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>28</fpage>
<lpage>43</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2518-44312025000200028&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2518-44312025000200028&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2518-44312025000200028&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: Este estudio analiza la influencia de factores macroeconómicos sobre la inversión en exploración minera en el Perú durante el período 2000-2020. Se construyeron series anuales a partir de fuentes oficiales para la inversión en exploración, el PBI de minería metálica, la cotización internacional del cobre y las exportaciones de cobre. El análisis descriptivo muestra una elevada volatilidad de la inversión, con un máximo en 2012 asociado al superciclo de los commodities, así como una fuerte correlación positiva con las exportaciones y un vínculo débil y negativo con el PBI minero. Mediante modelos de regresión en niveles y en logaritmos se encuentra que las exportaciones de cobre son el principal predictor estático de la inversión, mientras que el PBI minero presenta un efecto negativo significativo. Sin embargo, las pruebas de raíz unitaria y cointegración justifican el uso de un enfoque dinámico en primeras diferencias y un modelo ARDL, que logra explicar alrededor del 80 % de la variabilidad de la inversión con residuos bien comportados. En este marco, los precios y el PBI minero rezagados tienden a impulsar la exploración, mientras que niveles elevados de exportaciones consolidadas se asocian con efectos de sustitución en fases maduras del ciclo. Los resultados evidencian la fuerte prociclicidad de la inversión exploratoria y la necesidad de políticas que atenúen la dependencia de los shocks externos y preserven el pipeline de proyectos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: This study examines the influence of macroeconomic factors on mining exploration investment in Peru over the period 2000-2020. Annual time series were compiled from official sources for exploration investment, the gross domestic product (GDP) of metallic mining, the international copper price, and copper exports. Descriptive analysis reveals highly volatile exploration expenditures, peaking in 2012 during the commodity supercycle, together with a strong positive correlation with copper exports and a weak, slightly negative association with mining GDP. Static regression models in levels and logarithms indicate that copper exports are the main positive predictor of exploration investment, whereas mining GDP exhibits a negative and statistically significant effect, and the copper price fails to show robust significance. Nonetheless, unit root and cointegration tests justify the use of a dynamic specification in first differences and an ARDL framework, which explains around 80% of the variability in exploration investment with well-behaved residuals. Within this dynamic setting, lagged copper prices and mining GDP tend to stimulate exploration, while high lagged export levels are associated with substitution effects in mature phases of the cycle. The results highlight the pronounced procyclicality of exploration investment and underscore the need for public policies that mitigate dependence on external shocks and help preserve a stable pipeline of mining projects.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Exploración minera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[factores macroeconómicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Inversión minera]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Commodites]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mining exploration]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[macroeconomic factors]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mining investment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[commodities]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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