<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2074-4706</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[rlde]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2074-4706</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Católica Boliviana "San Pablo"]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2074-47062025000200011</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.35319/lajed.202544558</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Who Bears the Cost of Devaluation? Price Dynamics and Welfare Impacts During Bolivia&#8217;s 2024-2025 Currency Crisis]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[¿Quién soporta el costo de la devaluación? Dinámica de precios e impactos en el bienestar durante la crisis cambiaria de Bolivia 2024-2025]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hernani-Limarino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Werner L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,University of Pennsylvania  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>USA</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>44</numero>
<fpage>11</fpage>
<lpage>63</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2074-47062025000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2074-47062025000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2074-47062025000200011&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract** This paper dissects the asymmetric price and welfare consequences of Bolivia&#8217;s de facto 60% exchange rate devaluation using high-frequency scanner data from a national supermarket chain. Despite no formal float, consumer prices rose by 15% -with imported goods jumping 16.8% and domestic goods lagging at 9.2%. The inflation burden fell unevenly: while the cost of high-income households&#8217; baskets increased more (17.6%), their superior substitution elasticity allowed them to buffer welfare losses to 10.9% by shifting toward cheaper or newly available alternatives. In contrast, low-income households faced smaller price increases (14.5%) but larger welfare losses (13.4%) due to low substitutability and rigid consumption patterns tied to essential imported staples. A nested CES demand model quantifies these effects and decomposes the cost-of- living impact into four components: marginal cost pass-through, retail markup adjustments, substitution, and variety change. We find that poor households face full cost transmission with negligible margin relief or substitution escape routes, while the rich enjoy strategic price shielding. Microsimulations show this wedge exacerbates poverty by 2.6 to 3.8 points and worsens inequality, with the Gini index rising up to 0.7 points. The findings underscore that in segmented economies with essential imports and limited substitution at the bottom, devaluation can be both inflationary and inequality -enhancing- even in the absence of formal price liberalization.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Este artículo analiza las consecuencias asimétricas en precios y bienestar de la devaluación de facto del 60% en Bolivia, utilizando datos de escáner de alta frecuencia provenientes de una cadena nacional de supermercados. A pesar de no haberse formalizado el cambio de régimen cambiario, los precios al consumidor aumentaron en promedio un 15%, con incrementos del 16,8% en productos importados y del 9,2% en productos nacionales. El impacto inflacionario fue desigual: aunque el costo de la canasta de los hogares de altos ingresos subió más (17,6%), su mayor elasticidad de sustitución les permitió amortiguar la pérdida de bienestar a 10,9% mediante el reemplazo hacia bienes más baratos o variedades nuevas. En contraste, los hogares de bajos ingresos enfrentaron un menor aumento de precios (14,5%) pero una mayor pérdida de bienestar (13,4%) debido a su baja capacidad de sustitución y a patrones de consumo rígidos basados en productos importados esenciales. Utilizando un modelo de demanda CES anidada, descomponemos los efectos sobre el costo de vida en cuatro canales: traspaso de costos marginales, ajustes en márgenes de comercialización, sustitución y cambios en variedad. Los hogares pobres enfrentan una transmisión casi completa del incremento en costos, sin alivio por márgenes ni posibilidad de sustitución, mientras que los ricos reciben protección estratégica vía precios. Microsimulaciones indican que esta asimetría incrementa la pobreza entre 2,6 y 3,8 puntos porcentuales y eleva la desigualdad, con un aumento del índice de Gini de hasta 0,7 puntos. Los resultados muestran que, en economías segmentadas donde los pobres dependen de importaciones esenciales y tienen baja elasticidad de sustitución, la devaluación puede ser tanto inflacionaria como regresiva, incluso sin liberalización formal de precios.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Currency devaluation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Exchange rate pass-through]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cost of living]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Welfare impacts]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Distributional effects]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[CES demand system]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bolivia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Devaluación monetaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[traspaso del tipo de cambio]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[costo de vida]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[impactos en el bienestar]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[efectos distributivos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sistema de demanda CES]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Bolivia]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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