<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2074-4706</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[rlde]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2074-4706</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Católica Boliviana "San Pablo"]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2074-47062021000200007</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Graphing and Measuring COVID-19&#8217;s First Wave Impact on the Bolivian Economy: Facing the Unknown]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Graficando y midiendo el impacto de la primera ola de COVID-19 en la economía boliviana: enfrentando lo desconocido]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Barja]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Gover]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Católica Boliviana "San Pablo" Master&#8217;s Program in Public Policy and Administration, Maestrías para el Desarrollo ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Bolivia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>36</numero>
<fpage>7</fpage>
<lpage>42</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2074-47062021000200007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2074-47062021000200007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://www.scielo.org.bo/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2074-47062021000200007&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract The Bolivian monthly index of economic activity along with ARMA models are used in an attempt to graph and measure the impact of COVID-19&#8217;s pandemic on the Bolivian economy. The accumulated difference between the observed and counterfactual values, show an overall 12.6% loss of economic activity in the 10 months from February to November 2020 of the first COVID-19 wave, with a tilted W-shape short-run recovery just before the beginning of the second wave in December 2020. Breakdown into the twelve Bolivian economic sectors show wide heterogeneity in depth of impact and speeds of recovery during the same period.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El índice mensual de actividad económica boliviano, junto a modelos ARMA, es utilizado en un intento de graficar y medir el impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 sobre la economía boliviana. La diferencia acumulada entre los valores observados y contrafactuales muestra una pérdida global de 12.6% de actividad económica en los diez meses, de febrero a noviembre de 2020, de la primera ola de COVID-19, con una recuperación de corto plazo con forma de W inclinada justo antes del inicio de la segunda ola, en diciembre de 2020. El desglose de la economía en sus 12 sectores muestra amplia heterogeneidad en la profundidad del impacto y velocidades de recuperación durante el mismo periodo.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Interrupted time series analysis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[ARMA-GARCH models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Bolivia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Análisis de series de tiempo interrumpidas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos ARMAGARCH]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Bolivia]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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