Abstract

ARIZACA AVALOS, Américo et al. Investment in mining exploration in Peru: Influence of mining GDP, copper prices, and exports (2000-2020). Inv. y Des. [online]. 2025, vol.25, n.2, pp.28-43.  Epub Dec 30, 2025. ISSN 2518-4431.  https://doi.org/10.23881/idupbo.025.2-9e.

This study examines the influence of macroeconomic factors on mining exploration investment in Peru over the period 2000-2020. Annual time series were compiled from official sources for exploration investment, the gross domestic product (GDP) of metallic mining, the international copper price, and copper exports. Descriptive analysis reveals highly volatile exploration expenditures, peaking in 2012 during the commodity supercycle, together with a strong positive correlation with copper exports and a weak, slightly negative association with mining GDP. Static regression models in levels and logarithms indicate that copper exports are the main positive predictor of exploration investment, whereas mining GDP exhibits a negative and statistically significant effect, and the copper price fails to show robust significance. Nonetheless, unit root and cointegration tests justify the use of a dynamic specification in first differences and an ARDL framework, which explains around 80% of the variability in exploration investment with well-behaved residuals. Within this dynamic setting, lagged copper prices and mining GDP tend to stimulate exploration, while high lagged export levels are associated with substitution effects in mature phases of the cycle. The results highlight the pronounced procyclicality of exploration investment and underscore the need for public policies that mitigate dependence on external shocks and help preserve a stable pipeline of mining projects.

Keywords : Mining exploration; macroeconomic factors; mining investment; commodities.

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