Abstract

LAURENTE BLANCO, Luis Francisco. Demand for international tourism in of COVID-19 in the Puno - Peru region. Revista de coyuntura y perspectiva [online]. 2021, vol.6, n.1, pp.49-78. ISSN 2415-0622.

Abstract The tourism industry is important in the Puno region as hundreds of people benefit from it. However, in the face of the measure of social isolation resulting from the global pandemic of COVID-19, this sector of the economy was drastically damaged, since for the second quarter of 2020 the total arrivals fell by 100%. In this sense, it is necessary to know the future arrivals in the absence of the pandemic to estimate the losses and reactivation strategies. The objective of the work is to know the behavior of the demand for international tourism in the Puno region and forecast it into the future using time series models with monthly information from the period 2003 to 2019. The results of the investigation revealed that the SARIMA (6,1,24) (1,0,1)₁₂ model is the most efficient for the modeling and forecasting of tourism in Puno.

Keywords : Seasonality of tourism; Lake Titicaca; tourism in Peru; ARIMA models; social isolation.

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