Abstract

DA SILVA FILHO, Luís Abel  and  LUNA, Ivette. Interests, credit and vehicle market in Brazil: vector autoregression approach. Revista de coyuntura y perspectiva [online]. 2019, vol.4, n.3, pp.37-66. ISSN 2415-0622.

Abstract: Cyclical problems sporadically affect productive activities around the world. Brazilian car industry, a sector of relevant activity in the economy of the country, experienced problems in demand during the economic crisis of 2008 and in the following years. A set of protective measures were taken, among them: the reduction of the Industrialized Product Tax (IPI) and the reduction of the interest rate for the credit destined to the acquisition of vehicles. In view of that, the objective of this article is to analyze the impact of interest rates on the acquisition of credit, on the production and on the sale of vehicles in Brazil. To reach the proposed goal, Granger causality test is used and an analysis of the impulse response function is made from the application of the Vector Autoregressive model - VAR. The results show that there is causality, in Granger sense, among interest, credit, production and sale of vehicles and that Brazilian car industry responds positively to the reduction in interest rates with increase in credit, production and sales in the period studied.

Keywords : Interest; credit; vehicles; production; sale.

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