Abstract

HERMAN PINAYA, Edward E.; OXA GERONIMO, Alcides V  and  VASQUEZ MACEDO, Rolly R. Demand of electric energy in Bolivia: A model Sarima-Garch & Arn. Revista de coyuntura y perspectiva [online]. 2017, vol.2, n.1, pp.59-92. ISSN 2415-0622.

Abstract: The forecast of demand for electric power for the National Interconnected System (SIN), is highly relevant for the planning of electric power generation and thus to be able to anticipate in an efficient and anticipated way the projects for the future generation of electric power so Of avoiding imbalances in the Wholesale Energy Market (MEM), it is also a priority of the State to know the demand for electric energy, which is set out in Agenda 2025. In this document, the monthly electricity demand of the SIN is modeled. The SARIMA model is defined, verifying that the model is correct. And to control the variation of the conditional dispersion, an ARCH model is also proposed. In order to compare the prognosis, a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ARN) is elaborated. Finally, to see the FIR of the electric energy demand against a shick in the index of conomica IGAE activity, a model of Self-Regressive Vectors is elaborated.

Keywords : Electric Power Demand,; SARIMA; ARCH; Forecast demand; Artificial Neural Networks -ARN.

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