Abstract

REYES TERRON, Ángel Mauricio  and  VALDES HERNANDEZ, Gonzalo. Crime and Security Policies in the State of Mexico 1997-2023. rlde [online]. 2025, n.43, pp.43-84.  Epub May 31, 2025. ISSN 2074-4706.  https://doi.org/10.35319/lajed.202543566.

The article analyses the evolution and dynamics of crime incidence in the State of Mexico, graphically evaluating the impact of citizen security policies implemented during the government administration for the period 2017-2023. For this purpose, the Autoregressive, Integrated, Moving Average model is applied, which allows determining the underlying behaviours for a selection of variables or crimes that negatively affect Mexican society The study is relevant because it takes advantage of the available information bases and applies the aforementioned methodology in order to carry out continuous monitoring and evaluation of trends, as well as public intervention measures implemented to mitigate the criminal phenomenon, which may be methodologically novel at the national, subnational and local levels in the Mexican case. contributing to improve decision-making.

Keywords : Crime incidence; time series; Autoregressive, Integrated, Moving Average Model; impact evaluation; subnational level.

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