Abstract

DELGADILLO CHAVARRIA, Carlos Bruno. Contrast of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the presence of the J Curve for the Bolivian case during the period 2003-2019. rlde [online]. 2022, n.37, pp.113-157.  Epub May 01, 2022. ISSN 2074-4706.

The aim of this document is to analyze the effect of the movement of the multilateral real exchange rate on exports and imports for the Bolivian case. For this purpose, using data from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2019, autoregressive vector models are estimated with error correction, in order to calculate price elasticity's of demand for exports and imports for different aggregate and disaggregated categories of goods. This allows us to verify the fulfillment of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the presence of the J curve. The results found support neither the fulfillment of the Marshall-Lerner condition nor the presence of the J curve for the Bolivian case. On the other hand, the exported goods that respond positively to a depreciation of the real exchange rate are wood and tin. While the imported goods that respond negatively to a depreciation of the real exchange rate are intermediate goods and raw materials for the agricultural sector, and capital goods for industry and transport equipment.

Keywords : Marshall-Lerner condition; J curve; trade balance and real exchange rate.

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