Resumen

MEDINACELI MONRROY, S. Mauricio. Brief Analysis and Outlook of the Bolivian Natural Gas Industry: 1980-2021. rlde [online]. 2021, n.36, pp.169-226. ISSN 2074-4706.

This document explores the causes that led to the opening of new natural gas markets in Bolivia, its evolution and subsequent deceleration; some policy options that could be used to increase production in the Bolivian hydrocarbon sector and, finally, the new context of international markets, which is not favorable to Bolivia because: 1) both Brazil and Argentina have interesting prospects to increase domestic production and; 2) the irruption of GNL in South America, makes this product a serious competitor for Bolivian gas. Thirty years ago, none of these factors were a credible threat.

The main conclusions of the document are: 1) historical exports of natural gas, in particular the Bolivia-Brazil project, had a positive impact on the performance of Bolivian hydrocarbon’s sector and the economy; 2) due to the nature of the investment carried out in the sector, focused on field’s exploitation, and the highest Government Take in the region, a decline in future natural gas production is expected; 3) for this reason, Bolivia agreed with Brazil and Argentina (2019 and 2020) modifications to the export contracts to reduce the delivery obligations and avoid the payment of fines; 4) today, Bolivia’s negotiating position vis-à-vis Brazil and Argentina is weaker than 30 years ago, because of several factors, among them, the declining Bolivian natural gas production capacity, important discoveries of gas fields in “Vaca Muerta” en Argentina and Pre-Salt in Brazil, and the GNL option. Additionally, the document proposes some measures to boost the sector, some of them are the corporatization of YPFB and a more progressive tax system.

Palabras clave : Natural gas; Bolivia; gas exports; internal market for natural gas; upstream production.

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