SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
 issue33Asymmetric Effect of Economic Activity on the Liquidity of the Bolivian Financial System author indexsubject indexarticles search
Home Pagealphabetic serial listing  

Services on Demand

Journal

Article

Indicators

Related links

  • Have no similar articlesSimilars in SciELO

Share


Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico

On-line version ISSN 2074-4706

Abstract

BOHORQUEZ CORO, Claudia Mabel; CABALLERO CLAURE, Benigno  and  CABALLERO MARTINEZ, Rolando. Analysis of Inflation in Bolivia. A Markov-Switching Approach with Three States. rlde [online]. 2020, n.33, pp.213-235. ISSN 2074-4706.

This document analyzes the evolution of the inflation rate in Bolivia with three states, in the period 1987 to 2017, with quarterly frequency data. Markov Models are used for this purpose: a Switching Markov Regression of order 3 [MS_ARMA (3, 2, 1)], with autoregressive parameters of order 1 and 2 and the inclusion of a trend dummy in each regime. The results show that in the period under study, the spells of low and moderate inflation predominate throughout the sample. Another important finding is that the estimated persistence of interannual inflation rate in Bolivia is of order 0.1174, which implies a low persistence in inflation. This means that the shocks in it dissipate quickly, thus confirming the price stability that has been generated since the mid-1990s.

Keywords : Forecast and Simulation; Inflation Regimes; Time Series.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )

 

Creative Commons License All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License