Resumo

LAURENTE BLANCO, Luis Francisco  e  MACHACA TICONA, Dan Manuel. Testing for Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve from Peru: An analysis of multivariate cointegration. rlde [online]. 2019, n.32, pp.169-188. ISSN 2074-4706.

In Peru, the trade balance has played a leading role in economic performance, particularly since 2002, when it began to record surpluses, so that by 2018 there was a surplus of US$ 7,049 million. This dynamism of international trade keeps foreign trade as one of the main engines of the Peruvian economy. The objective of the study is to prove the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-Curve for Peru using monthly information from the years 2000 to 2018 obtained from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). For the analysis, the Johansen-Juselius methodology and the Error Correction Vector Model (MVCE) are used. The results revealed the compliance of the Marshall-Lerner condition for the long term and, by making use of impulse response diagrams, it is confirmed that the phenomenon of the J-Curve in the Peruvian economy is not fulfilled.

Palavras-chave : VAR; cointegration; vector error correction model; trade balance; real exchange rate.

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