Abstract

BANEGAS RIVERO, Roger Alejandro  and  VERGARA GONZALEZ, Reyna. Evaluation of Fiscal Scenarios for Bolivia. rlde [online]. 2019, n.32, pp.131-167. ISSN 2074-4706.

In this manuscript, scenarios of applicable fiscal rules for developing countries dependent on natural resources were evaluated. A Fan-Chart approach was used for the public debt of Bolivia, dependent on natural gas. The methodology consisted of an out-of-sample forecast (five years) compared to the ones observed (2012-2016). The results suggested that, without the presence of a fiscal rule, public debt approached the maximum level of indebtedness of the random forecast. With the perspective of evidencing a lower level of public indebtedness, natural resource revenues should be channeled at certain levels towards capital expenditure, limiting current spending and setting limits on the fiscal deficit. By introducing a fiscal rule, the volatility of public debt is reduced compared to a base scenario (without a fiscal rule).

Keywords : Fiscal rules scenarios; assignment of fiscal revenues to public spending; public debt; developing countries; natural resources.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )