Resumen

ALARCON GAMBARTE, Samuel. International Prices Shocks under Stochastic Uncertainty. rlde [online]. 2019, n.32, pp.57-93. ISSN 2074-4706.

Latin America has experienced a context of high volatility in its terms of trade during recent years. To analyze this phenomenon, a new way of modeling external prices that seeks to capture the uncertainty of the international market is provided. A stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed and estimated with data from Bolivia. Finally, a simulation is carried out introducing an export price shock and analyzing three different scenarios: conventional, under persistence shock and variance shock. It is analyzed the macroeconomic mechanisms of transmission in the face of external shocks and how economic agents react to changes in uncertainty.

Palabras clave : Macroeconomics of the open economy; fluctuations and economic cycle.

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