Abstract

ALARCON GAMBARTE, Samuel. International Prices Shocks under Stochastic Uncertainty. rlde [online]. 2019, n.32, pp.57-93. ISSN 2074-4706.

Latin America has experienced a context of high volatility in its terms of trade during recent years. To analyze this phenomenon, a new way of modeling external prices that seeks to capture the uncertainty of the international market is provided. A stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed and estimated with data from Bolivia. Finally, a simulation is carried out introducing an export price shock and analyzing three different scenarios: conventional, under persistence shock and variance shock. It is analyzed the macroeconomic mechanisms of transmission in the face of external shocks and how economic agents react to changes in uncertainty.

Keywords : Macroeconomics of the open economy; fluctuations and economic cycle.

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