Abstract

LANTERI, Luis N.. Choques macroeconómicos y crisis financieras: Alguna evidencia para la economía argentina (1977-2004). rlde [online]. 2007, n.9, pp.81-114. ISSN 2074-4706.

The turbulences happened in trie Asian markets in the nineties and the Argentine crisis of ends year 2001, showed the rapidity and the forcé whereupon can arise the financial crises and the difficulty to establish the evolution and the ramifications of these events. This workpaper examins the financial crises of Argentina in the period 1977-2004 (After the financial reform). Econometric tools were used with the purpose of determinig the behavior of the financial system in front macroeconomic shocks. Also one is to establish if the periods of falls in the levéis of economic activity, determine the crises in the financial sector or in the other wise. The made estimations show that the financial crises (fallen in the relation deposit/circulating in power of the public) they would be associate with reversions in the capital influences, with contractions in the real GDP, with depreciations in the type of real par, with increases in the relation M2/international reserves, with rises in the real domestic interest rates and with adverse shocks in the external terms of interchange. The results also reflect that the periods of economic recession anticípate the crises ¡n the financial system, in the short term, whereas in the long term both variables could be considered weakly exogenous (so the real GDP would be considérate strong exogenous).

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