Abstract

CIFTCIOGLU, Serhan  and  NEKHILI, Ramzi. New Evidence for Exports-Led Growth, Tradables-Led-Growth and Manufacturing-Led Growth: Causality Test Results for Turkey. rlde [online]. 2005, n.5, suppl.1, pp.135-154. ISSN 2074-4706.

Using quarterly Turkish data for the period 1987-2004, we first test the Export-Led-Growth hypothesis in two alternative forms: while the test results are supportive of a bidirectional causal relationship between the "growth of export revenues" and "economic growth", we have not found any evidence of a causal relationship between the "share of exports in GDP" and "economic growth". On the other hand, we found evidence of bidirectional causality between the respective output shares of tradables, in general, and manufacturing, in particular, and economic growth. The Granger causality test results also produced evidence of a unidirectional causality running from the "share of mining in output" and "economic growth". However, there is no evidence of causality between the respective output shares of tradables, in general, and each sub-sector of tradables, in particular, and the share of exports in domestic output.

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