Abstract

MERCADO, Alejandro F. et al. Bolivia: perspectivas económicas 2005-2014. rlde [online]. 2005, n.5, pp.11-50. ISSN 2074-4706.

Following the features of the Bolivian economy: small and widely open to the international markets, with a vast public sector and high unemployment rates; the forecasting of two economic scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for the period 2005-2014, includes specific hypotheses about the Foreign Direct Investment, Government Size, Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies and International Commodity Prices behavior. The crisis within the Bolivian political schemes and the increased social unrest episodes, constituted a hindrance to the country's economy in two ways: a narrowing of foreign financing in order to balance the public sector deficit and, a reduction of foreign direct investment; both of them are necessary sources for the development of natural resources' exploration (hydrocarbons) which will help to guarantee a sustainable growth and a self insurance against foreign economic shocks. For each scenario, there were forecasted the main macroeconomic and financial variables, and the paper findings points out to an economic growth of 3 and 2.4 per cent in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively.

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