Abstract

LAURENTE BLANCO, Luis Francisco  and  MAMANI HUANACUNI, Analuz. Modeling of quinoa production applying ARIMA in Puno-Peru. Fides Et Ratio [online]. 2020, vol.19, n.19, pp.205-230. ISSN 2071-081X.

Abstract The production of quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) is of economic and social importance for the population of the Puno región because this crop is the livelihood of approximately 100 thousand rural families in the región where according to figures from the last census, it is one of the regions poorest in Perú with a poverty rate of 24.2%. In this sense, the production of quinoa in the región of Puno is very important because more than 3,500 masl there are not many crop options, then it is necessary to carry out projection studies in order to plan agricultural activities in the región. The objective of this research is to apply a Box-Jenkins ARIMA model for the modeling of quinoa production in Puno. The study considers annual data between 1951 and 2017 extracted from MINAGRI. The best model found for quinoa production in Puno was ARIMA (0, 1, 4) using the AIC (Akaike) and SC (Schwarz) criteria. Then, the study is useful for the planning of quinoa production activities and policy decisions in the agricultural sector.

Keywords : Agriculture; ARIMA; Chenopodium quinoa Willd; forecasting; Peru.

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