Abstract

OVIEDO, Jorge Mauricio; MAMONDI, Victor Daniel; DE LA ROSA, Adolfo Javier  and  SANCHEZ, Roberto Daniel. An Estimate of Real Exchange Misalignment for Argentina 19802022. Perspectivas [online]. 2025, n.56, pp.39-100.  Epub Nov 30, 2025. ISSN 1994-3733.  https://doi.org/10.35319/perspectivas.202556288.

Given the methodological limitations present in most studies on exchange rate misalignment in Argentina, such as the omission of structural break analysis in the series or the lack of operationalization of the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER), this paper proposes to estimate the REER for the period 1980-2022 and thereby construct the exchange rate misalignment series for this period. To do so, the ARDL cointegration methodology is used, with the relative terms of trade, external debt, public spending, and productivity being the significant determinants of the RER. Comparing this with the observed RER yields a complete series of misalignments for the period under analysis, consistent with the economic events that occurred during that period. It is worth highlighting the detection of an exchange rate lag since 2010, which could not be reversed even with the devaluations of 2014 and 2015, and which reached its peale after COVID-19. The results suggest maintaining consistent and sustainable fiscal, exchange rate, and monetary policies to ensure stability and prevent economic crises.

Keywords : desalineamiento del tipo de cambio real; Argentina; tipo de cambio real de equilibrio; macroeconomía de la economía abierta; cointegración.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )