Resumo

HINOJOSA GUZMAN, Boris; MAILLARD, Oswaldo  e  SAUCEDO, Diego. Land surface temperature and climatic scenarios for land use change in the metropolitan municipalities of the department of Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Ecología en Bolivia [online]. 2021, vol.56, n.1, pp.17-28. ISSN 1605-2528.

We present the analysis of a case study based on Land Surface Temperature (LST) data in the ten metropolitan municipalities of the Department of Santa Cruz and a projection of climate scenarios (CC) for Land Use Change (LUC). The day and night LST were obtained for the period 2010-2018 based on the daily product MYD11A1 of MODIS. A linear regression analysis was performed between the LST with the maximum and minimum temperatures of two meteorological stations for the years 2010 and 2016. The MERRA-2 values were used to determine the current regional temperature scenario and the SRES (A1, A2, B1) and RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) scenarios were selected for future CC projections. A LUC projection was made with an emphasis on urban growth until 2100 and then the monthly values of the CC scenarios were superimposed for SRES and RCP. Among the results obtained, it is evident that the daytime temperatures of LST forest areas are lower compared to urban areas (-2.4°C) and agricultural/livestock use (-1.1°C). A significant correlation was found between LST values and air temperatures. In the future LUC scenarios, the predicted trends are higher for the municipalities of Porongo, Warnes, Cotoca, Santa Cruz de la Sierra and El Torno. The dynamics in LUC assume that it will influence the increase of maximum CC air temperatures, between 2.2°C and 3.9°C for SRES scenarios and 0.7°C and 4.1°C for RCP. At minimum temperatures these increases range from 2.4°C to 6.3°C for SRES and 0.7°C to 4.0°C for RCP.

Palavras-chave : Extreme events; Fragmented forests; Remote sensing; Urban planning.

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