Resumo

BELLOT, Daniel. Effective reproduction number of covid-19 in Bolivia. Revista Boliviana de Física [online]. 2020, vol.37, n.37, pp.31-40. ISSN 1562-3823.

Abstract The basic reproduction number, R₀ is a widely used parameter in epidiemological models. The non-linear nature of the spread of a virus in a human community limits the predictive value of R₀ in the early stages of a pandemic. A method is presented which updates the R₀ value to an effective value (R_t) based on the evolution of the number of cases, which makes it possible to preserve the validity of the epidiemological models, beyond the early stages. This method is based on Bettercourt and Ribeiro's work, and it consists of a bayesian scheme which estimates the distribution of probability of R_t. An implementation of this model on Python undertaken by Kevin Sytrom has been adapted to anlayze the data reported on the official website of the Bolivia government about COVID-19. An estimation for R_t and its temporary evolution for every department in Bolivia and the country as a whole was obtained. Finally possible application of projections based on this model are discussed.

Palavras-chave : Mathematical models; diseases; reproduction number..

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