Abstract

VARGAS, Alejandra; GHEZZI, Flavio  and  TICONA-BUSTILLOS, Armando R. A cellular automaton model for the spread of Covid 19 . Revista Boliviana de Física [online]. 2020, vol.37, n.37, pp.12-21. ISSN 1562-3823.

Abstract In this paper we use the cellular automaton method to simulate the spread of Covid-19 in small systems. Five groups of interest are considered: healthy, exposed, infected, recovered and vaccinated individuals. Asymptomatic individuals and deaths are not taken into account as they represent a low percentage of the population. One of the most relevant parameters in the system is mobility, which refers to the number of individuals moving in the system at the same time. By varying the levels of mobility in the system, we saw that the lower the mobility, the slower it was to reach the peak of contagion and the lower the number of contagions compared to the case in which the entire population moves at the same time, which is quite important in order to avoid a collapsed health system. The system with vaccinated individuals showed better results than the mobility restriction case. Finally, a one-size-fits-all, constant-size system is also modelled in which results showed the variable being the population. As expected, this part of the model demonstrates the importance of social distancing, since in systems with many individuals in small enclosed spaces, the maximum peak of contagion is reached in shorter times than in systems with fewer individuals.

Keywords : Computational techniques; random walks; diseases.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )