Abstract

PENAFIEL, M. L.  and  RAMIREZ AVILA, G.M. COVID-19 in Bolivia: studies and consequences of the SIRASD epidemiological model. Revista Boliviana de Física [online]. 2020, vol.37, n.37, pp.3-11. ISSN 1562-3823.

Abstract We analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Bolivia using a compartmental epidemiological model, which first considers a population consisting of infected and asymptomatic individuals, who are potential disease transmitters to susceptible people. Then, different periods, were studied where the infection rate can be either reduced or amplified due to public policies regarding quarantines and the people's engagement of these policies. Furthermore, to validate the model, we estimate a range for the epidemic peak occurrence using a function that fits the epidemic curve of several countries. Finally, we propose and explore different scenarios regarding massive mobilizations of people and an eventual implementation of a quarantine near the epidemic peak.

Keywords : Complex Systems; Social Systems; Diseases.

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