Abstract

BURGOA MARIACA, Andrés W.. ESCENARIOS CLIMÁTICOS PARA EL MONZÓN SUDAMERICANO: DETERMINADOS POR LOS MODELOS DE ACOPLAMIENTO DEL IPCC AR4. Revista Boliviana de Física [online]. 2008, vol.14, n.14, pp.100-115. ISSN 1562-3823.

Of the five climate change models established by the IPCC AR4 SRES A2, the present study applies the Ukmo_HadCM3 and GISS_ER models which provide strong and significant contrasts in the spatial distribution of the precipita¬ tions in the central part of the Amazon basin and Bolivian Amazon. The models Ukmo_HadCM3 and Mpi-Echam5CM3 simulate the future climate for the SRES A2 scenary and demonstrate significant c onstrasts in the anticyclonic vorticity (ζ > 0) or "Alta Boliviana". In turn, the observation of the Low Level Jet Current (CCNB in spanish) applying the above mentioned models, shows similarities in the transport of moisture of the African Sahel basin towards the Amazon basin, providing evidence of notorious contrasts in the North-East of the Plata basin.

Keywords : climate scenary IPCC AR4; future climate; precipitations; anticyclonic vorticity.

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