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Gaceta Médica Boliviana
Print version ISSN 1012-2966On-line version ISSN 2227-3662
Abstract
CABRERA, Maritza et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of dengue fever in Bolivia: climatic, environmental and sociodemographic factors. Gac Med Bol [online]. 2025, vol.48, n.2, pp.115-122. Epub Dec 31, 2025. ISSN 1012-2966. https://doi.org/10.47993/gmb.v48i2.1143.
Dengue is a prevalent arbovirus globally, with incidence rising sharply in the Americas due to climate change and increased human mobility. Bolivia recorded its highest cumulative incidence in early 2023, signaling a severe public health crisis.
Objective:
To analyze dengue cases in Bolivia (2014-2023) from a spatio-temporal perspective, identifying the climatic, environmental, and sociodemographic factors associated with transmission and the expansion of Aedes aegypti vector.
Methods:
A longitudinal observational study was conducted using departmental data. Annual Standardized Incidence (ASI) was calculated. calculated. Climatic and environmental variables included NDVI, maximum temperature, and precipitation. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were applied to interpret spatio-temporal structures.
Results:
The highest ASI values were concentrated in the eastern departments: Pando, Beni, Tarija, and Santa Cruz. Major outbreaks (2015, 2016, 2020, and 2023) coincided with the rainy season. NDVI showed the strongest correlation with incidence. The optimal GAM explained 67.8% of the variance. Incidence stabilized after 20 mm of rain and decreased below 20 °C.
Conclusion:
Dengue transmission in Bolivia is driven by climatic and environmental factors, primarily affecting the eastern regions. Foreign mobility and rainwater collection tanks are emerging risks. The study supports integrating eco-epidemiological models under a One Health approach for effective cross-border control.
Keywords : Aedes aegypti; Arbovirus; climate change; Dengue epidemiology.
