Abstract

ROJAS PADILLA, Carlos Alberto; SERRUDO, Lucy Daniela; SALINAS, Natalia  and  SOSSA, Anahí Soliz. WTI oil prices and economic activities in Bolivia, period 2011-2020. Investigación y Negocios [online]. 2023, vol.16, n.28, pp.149-154. ISSN 2521-2737.  https://doi.org/10.38147/invneg.v16i28.220.

Establishing the causal relationship between international oil prices (WTI) and economic activity in Bolivia is the scope of the research. Based on a previous conjecture, “There is causality between oil prices (WTI) and economic activity in Bolivia, period 2011-2020,” the eminently quantitative methodological design, with historical information summarized in 38 quarterly data in time series, allowed for statistical analysis.

The statistical approach to the data was developed based on the Windows 2013 Excel program and the EVIEWS program. The results, based on statistics, allow us to affirm that the relationship between the WTI variable and GDP and the main sectors of the Bolivian economy is nonexistent. There is no longer any adjustment between the variables. Fluctuations in oil prices do not explain changes in Bolivian economic variables.

The Granger causality test, through VAR, considering 4 lags, allowed to reinforce the previous conclusions in the sense that there is no Granger causality between the variables analyzed. Variable X does not cause variable Y in the sense of Granger. Therefore, it is concluded that any relationship is spurious, since there is no cointegration, synchronization between the rises and falls of the variables.

Keywords : Oil; West Texas Intermediate; Bolivia; Causality; Correlation.

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