Economía Coyuntural

Una aproximación al índice progreso social en Ecuador

Resumen: Uno de los retos más grandes que afrontan hoy en día los países de nuestra región, es la construcción de una sociedad capaz de satisfacer las necesidades básicas de sus habitantes, manteniendo un entorno de desarrollo adecuado y potencializando las capacidades que éstos poseen. Esta investigación es una aplicación, en Ecuador, de la metodología propuesta por Michael Porter, principalmente, para la medición del Progreso Social utilizando Encuestas de Condiciones de Vida desagregadas por deciles de ingreso. Aunque existe evidencia de un verdadero progreso de la sociedad ecuatoriana, es importante entender cómo éste se hace tangible hacia el interior de cada uno de los estratos definidos. Los resultados muestran que el progreso es visible a cualquier nivel de ingreso, y que se requiere un análisis más profundo de las dimensiones evaluadas por el índice y las implicaciones que éstos suponen.

Abstract: The most challenging situation that Latin America is going through is related with the construction of a new society able to satisfy its inhabitants' basic needs surrounded by a suitable socio-economic context while strengthening their capabilities. This research is an application of the methodology designed by Social Progress Imperative to estimate the Social Progress Index for Ecuador in 2006 and 2014, using Life Conditions Surveys disaggregated by income levels. There is a strong evidence of a real social progress within Ecuadorian society, and it is necessary to make a deep analysis to understand how this progress becomes real in each income level. The results show that regardless of the income level progress is happening, and further analysis needed to clarify some of the findings.

Granularity of the business cycle fluctuations: The Spanish case

Abstract: Following the approach proposed by Gabaix (2011), this paper aims to verify the existence of granularity in the Spanish business cycle fluctuations. A granular firm is characterized by the fact that its idiosyncratic shocks have a significant impact on GDP growth fluctuations. Despite the fact that granular firms constitute just a marginal fraction of the total number of firms, they account for a significant part of business cycle fluctuations. Our analysis shows that half of the GDP growth fluctuations of the Spanish economy can be linked to the idiosyncratic shocks of the largest 100 Spanish firms. Our work contributes to strengthening the empirical relevance of the granular hypothesis. The results show that the Spanish economy, as happens in the US economy, may be represented by a large number of small and medium enterprises whose individual evolution has no impact at the aggregate level, and a small number of large firms whose fluctuations contribute significantly to the variability of the Spanish business cycle.

Demanda de energía eléctrica en Bolivia:: Un modelo Sarima-Garch & Arn

Resumen: El pronóstico de la demanda de energía eléctrica para el Sistema Interconectado Nacional (SIN), resulta de alta relevancia para la planificación de la generación de energía eléctrica y así poder prever de manera eficiente y anticipada los proyectos para la generación futura de energía eléctrica de modo de evitar desequilibrios en el Mercado de Energía Mayorista (MEM), así mismo es prioridad del Estado conocer la demanda de energía eléctrica el cual está planteado en la agenda 2025. En este documento se modela la demanda mensual de energía eléctrica del SIN. Se definen el modelo SARIMA, verificando que el modelo planteado sea correcto. Y para controlar la variación de la dispersión condicional se propone además un modelo ARCH. Así mismo para comparar el pronóstico se elabora un modelo de Redes Neuronales Artificiales -ARN. Por ultimo para ver la FIR de la demanda de energía eléctrica ante un shick en el índice de actividad económica IGAE se elabora un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos.

Abstract: The forecast of demand for electric power for the National Interconnected System (SIN), is highly relevant for the planning of electric power generation and thus to be able to anticipate in an efficient and anticipated way the projects for the future generation of electric power so Of avoiding imbalances in the Wholesale Energy Market (MEM), it is also a priority of the State to know the demand for electric energy, which is set out in Agenda 2025. In this document, the monthly electricity demand of the SIN is modeled. The SARIMA model is defined, verifying that the model is correct. And to control the variation of the conditional dispersion, an ARCH model is also proposed. In order to compare the prognosis, a model of Artificial Neural Networks (ARN) is elaborated. Finally, to see the FIR of the electric energy demand against a shick in the index of conomica IGAE activity, a model of Self-Regressive Vectors is elaborated.

Financial speculation, global crisis and food sovereignty

Abstract: The process of economic and financial globalization has for decades established global economic structures that have left Latin America and other regions of the world highly vulnerable to the ebb and flow of the US economy. Mexico is an exemplary country in the region, by strictly following the practices of neoliberal globalization, and it became particularly dependent on food imports. This paper will focus on food prices and financialization. On the one hand, it will highlight the fact that Mexico has lost control over the supply and the price of its food, a similar phenomenon to the loss of other strategic sectors of its economy as energy. On the other hand, the paper emphasizes the speculative nature of the formation of commodity prices in international markets. The financialization of the economy is explored as complex phenomena, which has significantly altered the world's pricing system, with financial markets, exercising a considerable influence, therefore undermining the orthodox notion of determination of prices based on supply and demand.