PRESENTACIÓN]]>

The Climate Change Effects on the Agricultural Sector of Bolivia]]>

Bolivia as many other countries in the world, it is looking for some mechanism that allows to fight against the adverse impacts produced by climate variability. There is consensus that more adaptation and mitigation measures if we want to reduce the adverse effects produced by the climate change - in addition the vulnerability¹ to these phenomena depends also on other stress factors. The aim of our research seeks to evaluate the economic impact of climate change in the agricultural sector of Bolivia with and without mitigation measures. From one hand the work quantify the effect of climate change over the GDP - from the other hand it evaluates the relevance of mitigation measures destined to reduce the risk and vulnerability of climate change. There are many methodologies that evaluate the incidence of climate change, both from economic and technological perspective - the first one in well known as bottom-up schemes - the second one is named top-down schemes. For the purposes of our research we use top-down model, based on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) techniques.

La experiencia populista de los años ochenta]]>

A fines de 1982 Bolivia recuperaba la democracia después de un largo periodo de gobiernos, mayormente militares. El primer gobierno democrático, presidido por el Dr. Hernán Siles Zuazo, heredó de los gobiernos militares una economía muy deteriorada, marcada por la crisis de deuda externa. Durante los gobiernos militares los salarios reales cayeron significativamente y su recuperación fue una exigencia recurrente de los trabajadores organizados, base electoral del gobierno. Le fue muy difícil a Siles Zuazo arbitrar entre el ajuste macroeconómico y las demandas de su electorado. El populismo defensivo del gobierno fue incapaz de controlar las presiones sociales que afectaban al presupuesto fiscal y los crecientes déficit tuvieron que financiarse con emisión monetaria. La inflación resultante culminó en hiperinflación, y se acompañó de desabastecimientos generalizados y mercados negros. El Producto Interno Bruto cayó sustancialmente. La Central Obrera Boliviana que desdeñaba las restricciones fiscales y de balanza de pagos, con su carrera salarialista fue una responsable mayor del desastre económico. La hiperinflación se paró con un drástico y ortodoxo programa de saneamiento fiscal, que debilitó en el camino a la Central Obrera Boliviana.

In late 1982 Bolivia returned to democracy, after a long period of mostly military governments. The first democratic government, presided by Dr. Hernán Siles Suazo, inherited of the military governments a very deteriorated economy, marked by the external debt crisis. Also, during the military governments real wages had declined considerably and organized labor, which was the main political support of the democratic government, fought very forcefully for their recovery. Siles Zuazo found very difficult to reconcile macroeconomic adjustment with the demands of his electorate. The governments defensive populism was unable to cope with the mounting social pressures that worsened the fiscal deficits: These deficits were financed printing money. The resulting inflation, which ended up in a hyperinflation, was moreover accompanied by food shortages and black markets. GDP fell substantially. The Central Confederation of Workers, disdainful of fiscal and balance of payments constraints, embarked itself in a wage race, which over time became a major culprit of the economic disaster. The hyperinflation was stopped with a drastic and orthodox program of stabilization, with the side effect of weakening politically the organizations of workers.

La distribución del ingreso en el Estado de México, 2000-2007]]>

El presente documento versa sobre la distribución del ingreso en el Estado de México, en el periodo 2000-2007. El objetivo central consiste en identificar la manera en que se reparte la riqueza que genera la entidad entre sus habitantes, regiones y municipios. Aunque el estudio enfoca su atención en el análisis del ingreso monetario de los hogares, también hace énfasis en la disposición geográfica del mismo. Para ello, se emplea la metodología tradicional de desigualdad. Como resultado de este ejercicio se ofrece una cuantificación de la disparidad con que se disemina la renta doméstica y se distinguen posibles medidas de política para alcanzar una división más justa que coadyuve a un desarrollo más equilibrado entre las dimensiones y espacios observados.

The document evaluates the income distribution in the State of Medico during the period 2000-2007. The aim seeks to identify the way in which the wealth generated by the entity is divided among their habitants and regions. Even so this study is focused in the analysis of home’s monetary income, it also emphasizes in the geographic structures. For this purpose we used the traditional methodology of non-equality - the result shows the disparity in which domestic income is spread and the effect of policy measures to achieve a more fair division toward a mote balanced development between the size and spaces.

La economía política del populismo boliviano del siglo 21]]>

Los experimentos populistas son recurrentes en América Latina. Uno de los casos más conspicuos es el de Bolivia en el siglo 21 bajo el gobierno de Evo Morales y el Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). El populismo de este siglo, en común con experiencias previas, prioriza la redistribución del ingreso y de la riqueza basada en el papel central en la economía que se le da al estado por una parete, y en el nacionalismo por otra. La característica nueva en el populismo del siglo 21 es la incorporación de las reivindicaciones étnicas de la mayoritaria población indígena. Las políticas económicas apuntan a réditos políticos de corto plazo, desdeñando las consecuencias de largo plazo. Pero, a diferencia de experiencias previas, la agresión a los mercados, muy palpable en el caso de las nacionalizaciones y en la Nueva Constitución Política del Estado, ha sido más importante que la expansión fiscal o monetaria. Por otra parte, gracias al contexto internacional muy favorable, las políticas del gobierno del MAS no han tenido que chocar con restricciones fiscales o de balanza de pagos.

Populist experiments are recurrent in Latin America. One of the most conspicuous cases is that of Bolivia in the 21st century under the government of Evo Morales and his Movement to Socialism (MAS). The populism of this century, in common with previous experiences, prioritizes the redistribution of income and wealth, based on the central role of the state on the one hand and on nationalism in the other hand. A new feature of the populism of the 21st century is the incorporation of the ethnic demands of the large indigenous population. Economic policies are geared to short-term political gains, ignoring long term consequences. However, the aggression to markets, blatant in the nationalizations and in the New Constitution, has been more important than fiscal and monetary expansions. Also, because of the benign international environment, the policies of the MAS government have not had to face fiscal or balance of payments constraints.

Escenarios para la abolición de la política agraria común en España]]>

Este trabajo pretende evaluar cuantitativamente el impacto económico a largo plazo de la abolición de la Política Agraria Común (PAC), con especial énfasis en España. Para realizar nuestro análisis, hemos empleado el modelo de equilibrio general computable del Proyecto de Análisis del Comercio Global (GTAP) y la versión 6 de su base de datos, que representa la economía global en 2001. Para caracterizar la abolición de la PAC hemos eliminado unilateralmente todos los apoyos domésticos de la UE que constituyen el primer pilar de la PAC. Adicionalmente, hemos eliminado los subsidios a la exportación agroalimentaria, así como los aranceles sobre las importaciones agroalimentarias, todo ello con respecto al equilibrio en el año de referencia 2001. Examinando las medidas de bienestar tradicionalmente empleadas en los modelos de equilibrio general, efectos en términos de eficiencia asignativa y relación de intercambio, el resultado subyacente es que España mejoraría levemente su bienestar ante una eliminación de la PAC bajo determinados supuestos del modelo.

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively assess the long run economic impact of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) abolition, where in particular, we focus on the Spanish economy. To carry out our analysis, we employ the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model with accompanying version 6 data. In its present incarnation, the data captures the global economy in 2001. To characterise abolition of the CAP we unilaterally remove all pillar one CAP support. In addition, we eliminate export subsidies and EU import tariffs which affect primary agriculture and food processing sectors, all of it according to the benchmark equilibrium in 2001. Examining traditional general equilibrium welfare measures of market efficiency and terms of trade effects, our underlying result is that Spain realises a small welfare gain from removal of the CAP, although this finding carries a caveat.

Unemployment Duration and Labor Mobility in Argentina: a Socioeconomic-based per- and post-crisis Analysis]]>

This paper evaluates the unemployment duration and labor mobility using data from the household surveys provided by the National Statistical office (INDEC) for the period 1998 to 2005. The paper aims to understand and explain the evolution and main determinants of labor mobility and unemployment duration, two of the main problems that labor markets present. Unemployment duration is studied in terms of welfare and its determinants by applying stochastic dominance and econometric techniques. Labor mobility is analyzed using conditional multinomial probit techniques in order to evaluate its evolution, the impact of a crisis and the recovery period, that Argentina faced over the period 1998-2005. We found that there was deterioration in welfare measured by unemployment duration especially during the crisis period. We found that human capital played a key role in the unemployment duration and labour mobility. Unemployment duration is higher for people with higher educational levels, which shows that less educated people have lower reservations wages; similar result was found for females and males. The labour mobility results show that more educated people enter easier to formal labor markets which changes during the crisis when their probability of entering to formal labor market reduces; this would suggest that more educated people tend to adjust their wages and push out of the market less educated people. The labour mobility patterns do not reflect inflexibility in labour markets. We conclude that the apparent duality - formal and informal - in the Argentinean labour market which seems to reflect differences in access to productive resources (human capital) outside labour market is the one that determines the integration into labour markets and later labour mobility of a big part of labour force.

Short-Run Oil Price Drivers: South America`s Energy Integration]]>

The aim of this paper seeks to analyse how the energy prices cojuntural behaviour and structural conditions affect the short-run and mid-run overview of the energy integration process in South America (SA). For these porpoise we - first describe the world-wide energy agenda and the effect of current oil price swings and the corresponding natural gas adjustment - next we discuss about the regional stakeholders perspective of energy integration. We used two methodological approaches - first we calculate the oil prices according to their structural conditions or fundamental - second we detect the right ARIMA model with outliers and calendar effects for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the Henry Hub (HH) natural gas price. With this information we develop an analysis proposal based on their underlying growth rate and inertia.